China's auto market is forecast to face four major problems in its fall in growth rate in 2007
September 19, 2023
In 2006, China’s auto market was the best year in recent years. The Chinese auto market’s international status and influence have been upgraded to new heights. Relevant statistics show that: in 2006, China's total automobile sales was 7,271,600, a growth rate of up to 25.13%, and the consumption of Chinese automobiles also rose to 11% of global consumption. In 2006, China's auto sales revenue growth was greater than sales growth, and profit growth was greater than sales revenue growth. From January to November 2006, the industry-wide sales profit rate reached 4.99%, and the total profit growth rate reached 44.44%.
At the same time, China's auto imports have also ended the embarrassing state for three consecutive years, achieving a simultaneous high growth. From January to November 2006, the imports and exports of automobiles (including chassis) were 201,700 and 311,600, respectively. The growth rates were 40.42% and 100.26%, respectively. The pattern of “complementary varieties and misplaced operations†of imported cars and domestic automobiles was further deepened. Imported vehicles are mainly concentrated in four types of models: high-end luxury cars, high-end luxury off-road vehicles, personalized cars (such as all kinds of sports cars and a variety of special-purpose vehicles), the latest introduction of a variety of fashionable low-end car. What is even more gratifying is that our country's own brand still maintains a rapid development trend. In the year, the market share of independent brands of passenger cars is as high as 27%, and we continue to move toward the mid- to high-end market, gradually changing the competitive landscape of the Chinese auto industry.
All this shows that in 2006 China's auto industry is in a healthy development. In the face of the recent arrival of 2007, many domestic market experts generally believe that: in 2007, China's total demand for automobiles is expected to increase at a rate of 15% or slightly higher, and total sales of automobiles will exceed 8.3 million. So, what kind of development trend will China's auto market show in 2007?
Commercial vehicles grow steadily
In the past year of 2006, different from the previous two years, China’s commercial vehicle market has achieved a gratifying situation in which the market for passenger vehicles has risen in sync with the passenger vehicle market. The main reason is that strong exports have driven the growth of demand for domestic commercial vehicles. In the first eleven months of 2006, the cumulative number of domestic passenger cars exported was 24,300, an increase rate of 125.52%, and domestic exports of domestic trucks totaled 140,900. The growth rate was 57.41%, other domestic commercial vehicles and chassis export growth rate also exceeded 20%. With the increase in investment in fixed assets, the growth in domestic consumption, as well as the rapid growth in the turnover of road freight and the turnover of passenger traffic have also contributed to the growth of domestic demand for commercial vehicles.
According to industry experts, in 2007, the domestic demand for domestic commercial vehicles in China was about 2.08 million, and the exports were about 300,000. The total sales volume of domestic commercial vehicles will reach about 2.38 million, an increase of 17% or slightly higher than the same period of last year.
The specific reasons for the increase in demand for commercial vehicles are mainly due to several points:
First of all, since China’s economy will continue to maintain rapid growth in 2007, the demand for commercial vehicles will maintain a high correlation with the growth rate of GDP and fixed assets; at the same time, the world economy will continue to improve (only a slowdown), and it is also beneficial to China's commercial vehicle exports.
Secondly, no new policies will be introduced in 2007. The impact on the truck market in 2007 is still the implementation of the toll-by-weight policy and the implementation of State III regulations, but their impact has been basically released ahead of schedule; the promotion of the “passenger-village-village†policy will slow down; the implementation of fuel tax is unlikely, even if Implementation will also be in the fourth quarter or later.
In addition, at present, China is in the stage of accelerated industrial expansion of road freight traffic. At the same time, China has entered a period of large-scale civil engineering in 2007. At this time, changes in economic structure and growth patterns mainly affect the long-term demand changes of commercial vehicles. Years have little effect. Therefore, there is no significant impact on the growth of demand for commercial vehicles.
Passenger car growth decreased
In the six years since 2001, except for the fact that the growth rate of passenger cars in China has decreased due to the strengthening of macro-control in 2004, it has maintained super-fast growth in the other five years, and has grown by more than 35% from 2001 to 2006. It shows that the demand for passenger cars in China has entered the fast lane, and the potential growth rate is still at a high level, that is, the popularity of automobile development, but at the same time it also shows that the demand for passenger vehicles in China has already appeared a certain “overdraft†trend. Therefore, experts in the industry estimate that in 2007, the domestic demand for homemade passenger cars in China will be around 5.75 million, and exports will be around 170,000. The total domestic passenger car sales will reach 5.92 million, an increase of 14% or slightly higher than the same period of last year. The demand growth of passenger vehicles will experience a certain degree of decline. The basis for this conclusion is as follows:
First of all, the main reason for the demand for passenger cars is the growth rate of households that can purchase cars. The short-term growth of households purchasing car capacity mainly depends on the growth rate of GDP, and secondly, the car price and use environment also have a certain impact on demand. Since the second half of 2006, China's stock market has been booming. For this reason, a considerable proportion of potential consumers postponed the purchase of vehicles and put funds into the stock market or funds, which to a certain extent also inhibited the demand for the passenger car market. Coupled with the large sales base of passenger cars in 2006, it is reasonable to expect that sales growth will slow down in 2007.
Secondly, as China's automobile prices have been quickly brought into line with international standards in the past few years, the market price of passenger cars in China will continue to decline in 2007, but the magnitude will certainly be lower than that in 2006. Therefore, its role in boosting consumer demand for passenger cars will increase. It will continue to decrease; due to the relative stability of product prices, consumers will become increasingly rational, as in previous years, the passionate consumption caused by substantial price cuts will be difficult to reproduce.
Third, urban traffic jams, falling prices of public transport, increased use of private cars, and constraints on the development of the passenger car market, such as energy, atmospheric environment, and vehicle safety standards, will begin in front-line consumption in Beijing, Shanghai and other countries. The city has further developed and gradually expanded to other central cities in the country. As the main market for automobile consumption in China, the decline in the growth rate of consumption in the central city will have a significant impact on the growth of the entire domestic automobile industry.
Four major issues need to be resolved
After years of rapid development, China has surpassed Japan to become the world's second-largest automotive consumer market. The accession to the WTO did not make the domestic auto industry, which was originally in a weak position, be overwhelmed by the overwhelming foreign auto giants. Instead, it showed a gratifying situation of rapid growth. In 2006, the market share of China's self-owned brand cars was as high as 27%, and Chery’s entry into the top four in China all indicated this problem. However, there are still some urgent problems to be solved in the automotive market in China.
The first is the issue of market development and change. With years of rapid development, the serialization of single products of automobile manufacturers in China has become an inevitable trend. The competition in the passenger car market is becoming more and more full; it is increasingly difficult to increase the total sales volume of a single product, and the number of products is increased by increasing the number of products. The total sales volume of enterprises is more and more important; the industrial competition pattern is far from stable; the second and third level regional markets show development vigor; and the rapid growth of auto exports has a potential threat, which requires auto manufacturers to make early plans.
Followed by brand issues. From the difficult start to the stage of capital liberalization (the time in Japan is about 10 years), how Chinese companies use their time and capital to accumulate their own brand value and steadily establish their own brand, so as to eventually realize the control of Chinese-funded enterprises. China's auto market; Sino-foreign joint ventures must also have their own brands, continue to explore the establishment of their own technology platform, and develop products that can be used to fight their own LOGO (trademarks), which is also a problem.
The third issue is energy saving, emission reduction and emission reduction. At present, China’s economic development is high-consumption, high-pollution, and high-occupancy land. In 2007, it is a key year for energy saving, emission reduction, and emission reduction. Enterprises should increase energy conservation, emission reduction, and emission reduction, and establish long-term production “efficient fuel-efficient carsâ€. idea.
The rapid growth in the number of motor vehicles will exacerbate air pollution and lead to environmental crisis. The control of motor vehicle emission levels depends mainly on two conditions: advanced engine emission control technology and clean vehicle fuel. The State Environmental Protection Administration will formulate the mandatory national standard “Standard for Diesel Fuel for Vehiclesâ€, introduce pricing and taxation policies for encouraging clean fuels, etc.; strengthen the management of “production consistencyâ€, and shift from “approval†to “simplification†to “simplify administrative approvalâ€. "Later supervision."
The fourth is the issue of exports. Automobile products are the goods with the greatest potential for growth in China's export of major categories of goods. The sustainable development of automotive products exports is not only necessary but also possible. In the next few years, China’s export of automotive products should strive to achieve three changes: First, exports of parts and components will be based on low-end products that are labor- and material-intensive, and those that have high technological content and added value. The export of electronic products is the main change; the export market mainly changes from the aftermarket and maintenance market to the entry into the multinational global matching (ODM/OEM) market; and secondly, the export of automobile vehicles is mainly from small and medium tonnage trucks. Passenger cars and pickups for small and medium-sized passenger cars, pick-up trucks, and passenger cars, and commercial vehicles are subject to change; exports to developing countries are gradually shifting equally to both developed and developing countries; and third, export of automobiles from a single product export to a product export. The combination of "going out" and the combination of technology exports and capital exports.
China's auto market in 2006 sub-model sales summary table (unit: vehicle)
Source of data: China Association of Automobile Manufacturers model year 2006 2005 year-on-year growth %
The total number of cars is 7215972 5766679 25.13
The total number of passenger cars 5175961 3980798 30.02
use
car
Total commercial vehicle 2040011 1785881 14.23
use
car
Trucks total 1751105 1516729 15.45
Heavy duty 307296 235379 30.55
Medium 201818 194324 3.86
Lightweight 950895 853624 11.40
Mini 291096 233402 24.72
Total passenger car total 288906 269152 7.34
Large 31716 28979 9.44
Medium 64615 61945 4.31
Lightweight 192575 178228 8.05
Disposable Soup Cup,Pp Material Disposable Soup Cup,Disposable Soup Cup With Sealing Lid,Disposable Soup Cup With Cover
Taishan Lvhui Environmental Plastic Technology Co., Ltd. , https://www.cn-lvhui.com