The correlation between international oil prices and PTA and other products is not high recently.
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Li Jianan, researcher of China Investment Advisor Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. pointed out that both PTA and plastics are downstream products of crude oil, and their prices have a certain relationship with the trend of international crude oil prices. Under normal circumstances, higher international crude oil prices will drive up prices of downstream products such as PTA and plastics. At present, the link between international oil prices and the prices of PTA and plastic products is not obvious. The current international oil price fluctuates upwards, while the prices of PTA and plastic products have declined. The main reason for this analysis is that the downstream demand for these products is not very strong.
Li Jianan pointed out that PTA is one of the main raw materials for chemical fiber products. However, the current operating rate of textile enterprises is not high, and the sales situation of chemical fiber products is not optimistic. At present, most of the domestic chemical fiber product manufacturers have large inventories, which affects the demand for PTA, which is not conducive to the rise of PTA prices. According to relevant data, the current terminal demand in the textile industry is sluggish, and the loom load in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has dropped to about 53%. The demand for chemical fiber products in the downstream areas is limited.
In terms of plastics, there are currently many cheap plastics imported, and the plastic production equipment that was previously shut down and repaired has gradually resumed its work, which makes domestic plastic supplies more adequate. Nowadays, the demand for downstream users of plastics is basically stable, and the demand for plastic film in North China is approaching the end of the season. In the latter stage, the plastics industry will face the problem of insufficient demand. Therefore, plastic prices are difficult to increase due to the impact of insufficient supply and adequate supply.
According to relevant data, the volatile nature of the European debt issue will cause the external market to fluctuate, but the better US economic data makes the recent trend of crude oil futures tend to be stronger. On November 15, the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) crude oil futures closed above 99 US dollars per barrel, hitting a 16-week high, which will provide support for some domestic chemicals. However, as the economic situation is still not stable, it is expected that even in the near future, plastic will continue to maintain the range of shocks.
