"Oil price breaks eight" is a roadblock for the auto market

For many car dealers, the "construction congestion charge" is far-sighted, while high oil prices are near-term concerns.

The recent rise in oil prices in January, after the price adjustment on the 20th of this month, the oil price entered the eight-year era. The price of No. 93 gasoline (III) was 8.21 yuan/liter, that of No. 97 oil (III) was 8.89 yuan/liter, and that of No. 97 of the National No. 4 Standard had already broken nine, and the price reached 9.07 yuan/liter!

High oil prices have the most obvious impact on customers who purchase models under RMB 150,000. This group of customers can easily form a butterfly effect when they hold a coin and make other consumers wait and see. In the sales season in April and May, this will be a major factor affecting the purchase of cars. The characteristics of “not busy season and lighter off-season” are more obvious.

Oil prices affect the market's sensitive nerves

In fact, oil prices have undergone several adjustments every year in recent years, and prices have been rising. Car owners and car dealers have become less sensitive to oil prices. However, after reporters interviewed many car dealers and prospective owners this week, they found that the price adjustment has affected the sensitive nerves of the auto market.

The data can best reflect the impact of the oil price on the owner. This Tuesday, Nandu reporters and Pacific Automotive Network jointly launched a survey of the intention of the owners, a total of 364 owners involved, the data show that the recent increase in oil prices has become a major factor affecting the purchase of cars, 53% of consumers worried about the cost of car Can you afford it? In addition to frequent increases, we are also worried that the price of oil will be further raised in the future.

In fact, car dealers have long anticipated the adjustment of oil prices. Last month, Nandu reporters and several car dealers exchanged views on the development trend of the auto market this year, including the auto general manager of BYD Donghu 4S store general manager Zhou Yongjun and Yanghai Automotive Industry Group marketing director Xu Weijie, and the auto per capita thinks that oil prices will become the automobile market of this year. A bad factor.

"The peak season is not prosperous and the off-season is even lighter"

According to the law of sales in previous years, the auto market will gradually warm up after mid-March. This year, except for a handful of brands that have been supported by new cars and have gone hot, most brands have not felt the breath of spring. “Looking at the sales target, we think that it is in the peak season at the end of the year, and then we know that this is an out-of-the-season off-season.” From a Japanese car dealer’s joke word, you can visualize the real situation of the current auto market. .

When reporters from the Southern Capital visited the market on the racecourse this week, they noticed that many exhibition halls had only one or two groups of customers arriving at the store at 2 pm and 3 pm. Three store salesmen told Nandu’s reporter whether this month’s store was still Volume was lower than the same period last year.

After communicating with Dongfeng Nissan, Shanghai GM Buick, Geely and other branded car dealers, Nandu reporters found that because of weak sales in March, the frequently adjusted oil prices did not have a significant impact on the auto market. However, the intention of the owner has already had a thorn in the heart, which will be the roadblock for the second quarter of the auto market up the road. "This year's market is coming later than last year, but sales in April and May will certainly be better than in the first quarter, and the frequent increase in oil prices will have a significant impact on the auto market. Car owners who do not have rigid demand will wait for their holdings. Not only 4, 5 The fineness of the month will be affected and the off-season in June will be even lighter," said a veteran car dealer in the auto market.

Institutional perspective

The top of the oil price is not present

According to the logic of rising oil, the geopolitical issues surrounding Iran and the Middle East are the first elements that fueled the rise in oil prices. The recent global warming is the second factor that fuels the rise in oil prices. Super money is the third element of rising oil prices. Judging from the first element, given the status of Iran’s top five oil-producing countries in the world, we do not rule out the risk of further shocks to the supply side. From the perspective of the second major factor, the bottom of the global economy has emerged, and the US’s weak recovery Or will continue to support the oil price. Judging from the third major element, although the risk of the European debt crisis has decreased in the short term, the funding gap in the crisis countries is still large. We believe that there is a very high probability that the Eurozone will continue to implement easing policies and even continue to implement LTRO. In summary, we do not rule out the risk of further increase in crude oil prices during the year.

Car dealer's point of view

Cai Zhaoyuan, Director of Marketing, Dacang Xilong Group: High-end and high-end car customers are not sensitive to oil prices, and oil prices are not the most negative factors for our group. However, this year's auto market is affected by a variety of negative impacts. The days of auto dealers are certainly not good enough. At present, we are also carrying out multi-form packaging of promotional programs and actively exploring the used car market in the hope of boosting sentiment.

General Manager Huang Zhijian, General Manager of Geely Mingzhi Automobile: This year, due to the uncertain economic situation, customers have become more rational than last year, and owners who purchased high-quality versions are significantly less than last year, and rising oil prices are aggravating for their own brands.